UK Economy – A Soft Or Hard Landing in 2023/2024?

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November is almost upon us, and the landing zone is almost in sight. The Bank of England may have finished raising rate, but have they gone too far already?  The rates are already high enough to pose financial stability risks and only 50% of the intended impact has been felt. Up to a million households are coming off fixed-rate mortgages in the next few quarters posing new risks. Inflation is falling but is it the ‘right kind of inflation’? Will it be enough to halt further rate rises?  Ongoing business and investor uncertainty is lingering in H2 2023. Will this deprive the UK commercial property sector of its traditional year-end surge? Despite these short-term worries, several long-term trends (demographic changes, new working practices, retail transformation, et al) offer opportunities for the UK economy and especially for UK regional development and commercial property.

• Short-term outlook on UK inflation, interest rates, financial stability, and economic performance
• Latest market metrics and forecasts for UK commercial occupier and investment markets
• Observations on AI, e-commerce, hybrid working and ESG
• Long-term outlook on UK structural change and performance against its international peers
• Is ‘levelling up’ dead? A few notes on UK regional development and regeneration

Walter Boettcher, Head of Research and Economics, Colliers